It’s Sunday. We’re moving from heat to balance. Sellers need guidance. Buyers need permission. You are the translator.

Hello from a quiet Sunday in prep for a new week! I’m heading off-grid later this week (literally!). It’s been a while since I’ve set out on a full backpacking trip—and this time, I get to introduce my son to the adventure. Just the two of us, the outdoors, and the bare necessities on our backs. ⛺

Before stepping into the PNW outdoors, I carved out time to dive into Keeping Current Matters’ July market update and paired it with our local Windermere Stats—specifically Seattle and King County residential data. In the spirit of staying curious, I ran all three through AI to surface the most relevant themes as we head into the second half of 2025.

What follows is a blend of macro and micro—national insights + local realities. It’s a bit of a different format this time, with some AI-powered synthesis behind the scenes. I’ve highlighted what I believe are the realest, clearest takeaways for brokers right now.

Let me know what resonates with you. Let’s keep the conversations going…

P.S. Need the updated password for www.WindermereStats.com? Text me at 206.227.7133. We’ve got fresh reports for the Eastside, Seattle, King & Snohomish counties—residential and condo—plus breakdowns across the NWMLS. What’s below is a mashup of national trends + King County + Seattle. Dive in!

📊 Mid-Year Market Update: What Brokers Need to Know Now

We’ve officially hit the midpoint of 2025, and the market continues to evolve. The pace, the players, the priorities—everything is shifting. The brokers who stay curious, stay informed, and stay connected are the ones best positioned to lead their clients forward.

🏗️ 1. National Inventory is Up — and Builders Are Leading the Way

Nationally, new construction is carrying the load on available housing:

  • 9.8 months of supply (highest in years)
  • 75% of quick move-ins come with incentives
  • Builder-paid mortgage rate buydowns are dropping effective rates by ~0.5%

💡 Local parallel: In Seattle, we’re now sitting at 2.0 months of inventory, up from just 1.7 months last year. In King County overall? Also 2.0 months—up 44% year-over-year.

📍Broker takeaway: Even if you don’t typically work with new construction, be ready to talk about it. Buyers need to understand every option and for us locally, we’ll keep zoning changes top of mind. We will keep opportunities alive in continued learning the back half of 2025.

📉 2. A Cooling Market — But No Crash

National forecasters project +1.9% average price growth in 2025, with some once-hot metros now showing year-over-year price declines. This is not a crisis—it’s normalization after years of rapid acceleration.

💡 Local reality: That’s not Seattle right now. In fact:

  • Seattle’s median sale price in June hit $1,079,950, up 13% from $957,000 a year ago.
  • King County overall reached $1,033,950, also up 7% year-over-year.

📍Broker takeaway: Many clients assume prices are falling. Help them understand where that’s true—and where it’s not.

💵 3. Affordability Still Rules the Conversation

KCM’s national data shows buyers remain sidelined not because of desire—but because of affordability challenges:

  • Mortgage rates are still hovering around 6.8%
  • Monthly payments remain high, and wages haven’t fully caught up

💡 Local reality: In Seattle, the monthly payment (P&I) for a median-priced home is now $7,055. In King County, it’s $6,754. Even with flat rates year-over-year, that’s up 6–12% in real monthly dollars.

📍Broker takeaway: The “cost of waiting” remains real—but so does buyer hesitancy. Meet clients where they are, financially and emotionally.

⚖️ 4. Buyer-Seller Dynamics Are Leveling Out

Nationally, we’re seeing signs of a more balanced market:

  • Inventory is up.
  • Price concessions are becoming more common.
  • Fewer bidding wars; more negotiations.

💡 Local flavor: In Seattle:

  • 39% of homes sold above list in June
  • 22% sold below list
  • 20% experienced price reductions before sale

In King County:

  • 33% sold above list in June
  • 24% sold below
  • 23% had price adjustments

📍Broker takeaway: We’re moving from heat to balance. Sellers need guidance. Buyers need permission. You are the translator.

🚨 Bonus: Seattle (residential) Market By the Numbers (June 2025)

  • Inventory: Up 35% year-over-year
  • Pending sales: Up 16%
  • Closed sales: Up 23%
  • Median price: $1,079,950 (up 13%)

This isn’t a slow market. It’s an active, dynamic, but nuanced one. Help your clients see that.

🧭 Final Thought: Your Identity is Your Reality

From the July KCM market report:

“If you see yourself as the expert, that will be your reality.”

This second half of 2025 will be won by the brokers who stay rooted in fact, strategy, and empathy. Not just reacting, but leading. Not just showing homes, but showing the way forward. Let’s do that.

Wishing you a wonderful week ahead. It’s a short one for me—hence the Friday blog landing on a Sunday. I’m looking forward to unplugging for a bit, then returning with fresh perspective and a sharp eye on all the possibility that awaits in the back half of 2025.

Here’s to staying current, staying curious, and spotting opportunity in the shift. ✨

— Laura Smith, Windermere Real Estate Co.

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