It’s Friday, let’s sweep! |When will the next recession begin? Answer is…

Welcome to Friday, let’s sweep! This week I started out at our Eastlake office and shared the below content for discussion. As real estate professionals, people turn to us as one source for how economics impact the market and yet what they really want to know is how do market conditions impact me. When we speak to the “R” word = recession = it is important our vernacular is framed with an educated lens. We all remember the “Great Recession” – it was big. Let’s look at how Steve Harney and his Keeping Current Matters team is educating with respect to this juicy question, “When will the next recession be?

Let’s digest what Steve Harney has to say, in his words below paired with visuals below…

KCMoctober

“And we’re going to start, as we always do, right with the news. Ladies and gentlemen, I want to give you a little bit of an update. The Wall Street Journal did a survey of economists and asked a question. When will the next recession begin? As you know, we want to keep you updated on that. We think that’s going to be a big issue. We don’t think the recession is going to cause much challenges in the market, but we are afraid it’s going to cause concern in the market. Meaning, I don’t think the recession is going to be anything like 2008. Morgan Housel said, “It might be over before we realized it began.” But, I’m a little nervous about people panicking over it since there’s so much talk to it, especially coming into a presidential election year. But, the Wall Street Journal did survey over 36 economists, and we added their results to our chart, which you have right in front of you now. So, we have four major surveys done by four major entities, the Pulsenomics survey, the Duke University survey, the National Association of Business Economics survey, and the Wall Street Journal survey:

recession1

So, there it is. You have that there, as you can see. And we lumped it together on the next slide. The almost 47 percent, 46.9 percent, think that the recession is going to occur before the end of next year, with another 28 percent saying it’s going to occur sometime in 2021, and much of that was early 2021. So, what we’re talking about is in the next 18 to 24 months, the vast majority of those analysts and economists surveyed think we’re coming to an economic slowdown.

recession2

Now, remember, I always want you to include this slide (below). Every time I’m talking about the recession, I’ll include this slide. You’re going to get sick and tired of this slide that’s how many times we’re going to include it. This is your home price change during the last five recessions. And obviously, in 2008, the recession of 2008, prices dropped dramatically because the number one trigger of that recession was housing crash and the number two trigger was a mortgage market meltdown.

recession3

So, of course, it impacted the housing industry because it was the housing industry that caused the recession. But, if we look at the four of the five recessions prior to that, home values actually went up, and the only time they didn’t, they went down by less than two percent. So, we don’t see prices dropping. If you have buyers, whether they be a first time homebuyer or a move-up buyer, that are waiting for prices to come tumbling down before they buy, let them know that’s not happening. As a matter of fact, we have the Projected Home Price Percentage Appreciation Going Forward by six major entities, the Home Price Expectations Survey, the Mortgage Bankers Association, Zelman and Associates, Freddie Mac, the National Association of Realtors, and Fannie Mae. And you can see that as far out as they project, some four years, most two years, as far as they project, they’re still looking at appreciation. There are no red numbers there. So, no one is projecting, even those economists that said that there’s an economic slowdown coming, are not projecting that prices are going to be impacted to a level that they’re going to start to depreciate. Appreciation has been decelerating, meaning we aren’t appreciating at the same levels that we have over the last couple of years. But, even that might change. Here’s the Forecasted Year-OverYear Change in Price by CoreLogic. Last year, the last 12 months, according to CoreLogic, prices went up 3.6 percent. But, they’re projecting that over the next 12 months – and here’s the breakdown by state – they’re projecting that prices will go up 4.5 percent. So, they’re really seeing a reacceleration of pricing. And I think that you’re going to see, in their next report, that that number is going to be over five percent. Again, there’s a lack of inventory with interest rates being so low. Buyers are out there. So now, that’s that supply and demand situation again.”

Ok, Laura’s voice returns here to this blog post! If you’d like to listen, read and digest the full 2019 Keeping Current Matters October report and do not have a KCM account – text me,  happy to give you access for a test drive. These reports come out after the 10th of each month and it is where I always start in digesting the macro news and industry updates.

Don’t yet have my cell # number plugged in? 206.227.7133

Happy Friday everyone! Thanks for reading along and staying current, it matters.

In partnership with you, as so grateful to be.

Laura Smith | Co-owner | Windermere Real Estate Co.

Six

It’s Friday, let’s sweep! | plus one (art) + September #’s (science)

W

Welcome to Friday, let’s sweep both the “art +science” this week! We’ll start with the art and wrap with the #’s…

My cup in October is very full. Some would say spilling over a wee bit much (aka, my kids have noticed a bit – I’m listening). I spent last week at our annual Windermere Owners Retreat – focused on leadership with my peers from the greater Windermere network. This week, around a table for our monthly local managers meet up. My bookend to this week with an executive group [ceo’s + key executives all outside of real estate = important ingredient] that I gather with monthly to collaborate and frankly > they coach me. I’ll wrap up October in Spokane for the Windermere Summit.

With these recent travels, meetings, coaching there has been one consistent theme that has risen to the top yet again for me: People first, Business second > the mantra that is my cornerstone to eliminate noise, lessen distractions, focus in the right places and make sound decisions that I believe are best for our people, our brokers and our staff.

Last week in Sonoma, CA I had the pleasure of hearing a story worth retelling – a people first, business second story. Let’s refer to this story as the “plus one” story:

A person is in the midst of relocating to an all together new city. In working with her broker, the broker asked her this question…”what will you miss most about the neighborhood you are moving from?” The person’s answer: “hands down, my butcher and my wine shop.”

Pause. What would you do with this information? Would you immediately send her links to all your favorite butchers & wine shops?

Would you think to do this…

Time rolls on in their home buying process and search. As they begin to narrow down the search, they had narrowed the search down to the last couple of homes and neighborhoods of interest in her relocation. Heading out to view these two homes, the broker pulls her car over and says let’s make a quick stop on our way.

Where did they stop?

The neighborhood’s favorite butcher. The neighborhood’s favorite wine shop. Did the butcher and the people know they’d be stopping by? Did they know the name of the person relocating? Yes + yes.

When we create unforgettable experiences for our people, we often refer to these experiences as a 10 (on a scale of 0-10). This was an 11. This story, was a “plus one.”

numbers

Ok, now up for your monthly dose of stats – ready for you to digest. Full reports at Windermerestats.com > password is updated.

Need the password? Text me (206.227.7133) or ask your office!

To accompany the Seattle Residential and Condominium report, here are the quick hitting Seattle monthly talking points…

  • Sales are good (pending sales up 10% for September vs last year 948 vs 861). Inventory has stayed flat (1,959 vs 1,965 active at end of the month).
  • With sales up and inventory staying flat it would seem good for the sellers, though prices are down 3% from last year.  19% of September closings were for over list price compared to 23% last year, and this compared to the hot, hot spring markets of 2017 and 2018 when 60% sold over list price. 
  • About half (47.3%) of the properties that sold, sold with less than 15 Days on Market.  List price must be close to value to sell (page 5).
  • Interest Rates, Interest Rates, Interest Rates… 3.61% vs 4.63% from a year ago (page 5 – “waiting” hasn’t cost the Buyers).

A one percent change in interest rate is a 10% change in purchase price.

Competing for a listing? (educate Sellers on page 2)

  1. What are the odds of selling: 7 in 10 (70% for trailing 12 months), 3 in 10 are not selling.
  2. Percentage of Pending Sales that don’t close is ~1 in 6 (16% for trailing 12 months).

Remember, who you hire matters! 

That’s a wrap, welcome to Friday! What will be your “plus one” story as we head into a strong finish in 2019 and launch into 2020. I want to know about it! I know your stories exist in the hundreds. This leadership team is in planning season and “plus one” will indeed be a key theme! Let’s go!

People first, business second – in partnership with you.

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Laura Smith | Co-owner | Windermere Real Estate Co.

Shift

Looking to shift your outlook, shift your business and shift your possibilities heading into 2020 – join me October 24 + 25 at Windermere Summit?

Registration open thru today: here.

#WREshift

It’s Friday, let’s sweep! | autumn leaves & podcasts please x 3 [pumpkins too]

pumpkinsplease

Last week, I released a series of podcasts: Episode 15-17 were designed for us to continue conversations as we approach October 1st and the upcoming NWMLS rules changes. These 3 episodes were recorded to work best to listen in succession, yet each episode can be digested as a stand alone podcast.

As I roam our offices this week, based on commentary, it appears these 3 podcasts are being digested and the content has been appreciated…so I’m putting last week’s post on repeat. Thanks for “tuning it” and the feedback thus far.

…and an additional note from OB Jacobi in clarification:

“On October 1st, 2019 all listing detail pages on Windermere.com will have a new section at the bottom of the page called “Additional Listings Info” which will note the “Buyer’s Agent Commission” as a percentage. This information is inputted by the listing agent into the NWMLS. This new data point will be visible on both Windermere.com and Agent Website listing detail pages.” – OB Jacobi

A screenshot below is an example of what this will look like…

SOC screenshot

Ok, last week’s sweep on repeat – thanks for “tuning in”! I’ll keep recording as long as I have people willing to listen!

#TheHuman Algorithm #AllInForYou

Episode #15 | Antitrust 101| David Daniel from Demco Law Firm & I brush up on the 101 of antitrust. We dip our toes into a current antitrust lawsuit and why it is a good time for brokers to refresh their understanding of the law and stay current with their practices to avoid copycat lawsuits. A great opportunity to keep education top for mind!

Episode #16 | NWMLS Modernization of Selling Office Commission Rules | With this conversation David Daniel from Demco Law Firm & I hope to break down confusion around October 1 2019 NWMLS rules changes and share best practices. Word of the day = Transparency. Bottomline, that is a good for the consumer.

Episode #17 | Buyer Agency Agreements | Windermere Ballard broker, Greg Lewis mic’d up with manager Darlene Sozinho & I to share his successful use and process with Buyer Agency Agreements. BAAs are often not a tool used in our marketplace (yet) however after hearing from Greg I do believe many of you will decide to add this process into your playbook…and win the day by doing it! Spoiler alert: good for you + good for you clients. A winning strategy for both! Note: within many markets BAA is the norm.

Laura Smith | Co-owner | Windermere Real Estate Co.

Laura Smith

It’s Friday, let’s sweep! | Double Down x 3

wreRealEstate_STKD_Color

This week, I’m releasing a series of podcasts: Episode 15-17 are designed for us to continue conversations as we approach October 1st and the upcoming NWMLS rules changes. These 3 episodes were recorded to work best to listen in succession, yet each episode can be digested as a stand alone podcast.

As we approach a strong finish to 2019 and launch into 2020 my goal is to lead via education, access and collaboration.

 Ps: a highlight of my week was to receive this picture from our Eastlake office. A great example of “why” to show up to the office. Going this business alone is not for the faint of heart. Going this business together is a much stronger strategy. If you are approaching 2020 feeling as if you are going this alone, connect with me. Here to help, alway the goal.

#relationships #collaboration #community #professionalism

All in, for you!

braintrust

Ready to “tune in” to the conversations? Great, let’s go…

Episode #15 | Antitrust 101| David Daniel from Demco Law Firm & I brush up on the 101 of antitrust. We dip our toes into a current antitrust lawsuit and why it is a good time for brokers to refresh their understanding of the law and stay current with their practices to avoid copycat lawsuits. A great opportunity to keep education top for mind!

Episode #16 | NWMLS Modernization of Selling Office Commission Rules | With this conversation David Daniel from Demco Law Firm & I hope to break down confusion around October 1 2019 NWMLS rules changes and share best practices. Word of the day = Transparency. Bottomline, that is a good for the consumer.

Episode #17 | Buyer Agency Agreements | Windermere Ballard broker, Greg Lewis mic’d up with manager Darlene Sozinho & I to share his successful use and process with Buyer Agency Agreements. BAAs are often not a tool used in our marketplace (yet) however after hearing from Greg I do believe many of you will decide to add this process into your playbook…and win the day by doing it! Spoiler alert: good for you + good for you clients. A winning strategy for both! Note: within many markets BAA is the norm.

Laura Smith | Co-owner | Windermere Real Estate Co.

Laura Smith

It’s Friday, let’s sweep! |”Into the golden hour”…

leaves

Welcome to Friday, let’s sweep! We’ve been content heavy in recent blogs and certainly at our office meetings. This week’s sweep is a feel good. And for those of you who are looking for #’s – I’ve got those too. A little something for everyone! First up the feel good…

“A change is in the air; a great mellowing. It’s in the wind, in the earth, inside each and every one of us. And somewhere, not far off in the distance, woodsmoke is seasoning the evening sky.

Each year, autumn arrives all bluster and, like an old friend, invites us to come outside and enjoy a few more days of color and light. In the fall, we watch the sky. We listen for rain. We stop to watch the trees and their painted leaves. We pack away our beach chairs and unpack our woolen socks. We settle into our long pants and our sturdy boots and our trusty old raincoats. We return to books half-read and sweaters half-knitted and favorite old recipes, written in our mother’s hand. This time of year, we remember our love for pumpkin and pecans; we pick barrels of apples and bake with buckets of cinnamon.

Each year, autumn reminds us to return to the routines that anchor our lives in time. We feel nostalgia deeply and embrace ritual fiercely. We go home again. We relive glory days. We gather together in September stadiums, around October bonfires, and at long November tables. And in the shadow of the dimming natural world, we tell and retell tales. 

In this way, every autumn is another turned page, another chapter completed, a bit more perspective on the full story of our lives: the rising and the falling, the discovery and loss, the sacrifice and surprise. And isn’t this he story of all of life, of ends that follow beginnings and then make room for new beginnings? Without this rhythm, this eternal cycle, how could we ever be whole?

So, let’s harvest all the light and life and goodness that we can. Here and now, during the sweet golden hour of the year.words by Austin Sailsbury

numbers

…and for those of you looking for less of the feel good content and want me to show you the #’s > Windermere Stats is updated – here. Next Friday I’ll dive deeper into the digestible bites of those numbers.

*password is updated – text me if you don’t have it – 206.227.7133 or ask your office!*

Tomorrow is Summer Splash! Shout it out via all your social channels! All event details here. Please thank those in your offices that have been driving this =  big + impactful job!

…and there is a new addition this year for those of you who love your four-legged friends: Dog Days of Summer Walk. Register your dog or your clients dogs here!

Your offices have all the marketing pieces at their fingertips – just ask.

Ps, I’m ready to go find a great puzzle as we head “into the golden hour”…

All in, for you.

Laura Smith | Co-owner | Windermere Real Estate Co.

 

 

It’s Friday, let’s sweep! | Refining your Buyer process

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After hours and hours [and even more hours] of thinking thru and discussing with many of you the upcoming NWMLS Rule changes around SOCs, what bubbles up to the top for me is to focus our attention back to helping brokers have, develop and refine your process in working with Buyers. Those that have a dialed in and repeatable process will have continued success.

A few digestible bites in the why to have a process:

Process gives you [and your Buyers] confidence.

Confused buyers don’t buy, they think about it.

 Consistency with your process is a tool that can drive others to refer to you. People tend to refer if they are 100% confident they will be given the same experience.

A process provides you sanity when you are busy.

mic

This week I mic’d several people up on my podcast focused on these 3 topics: (1) Antitrust Lawsuit (2) NWMLS Modernization of Selling Office Commission Rules (3) Buyer Agency Agreements

*These episodes are currently into the editing stage and I’ll release throughout September – strategically pre-October 1st NWMLS SOC rules changes.*

Today however, I’d like to roll back time & re-share Episode #5, Buyer Savvy Strategies. It is worth a listen if you’d like to examine your Buyer process. My suggestion on where to refine your craft is at Buyer intake – the early stages of your process. As always, guide your clients with a heart of a teacher.

Do you have a process? If so, where might you refine it?

Not sure where to start? Looking for a Windermere ProDev class to build & refine your Buyer Savvy Strategies class? Opportunity is here. This clock hour class has been refined to meet the demands of the market. Click for details here.

All in, for you.

Laura Smith | Co-owner | Windermere Real Estate Co.

Laura Smith

 

team

It’s Friday, let’s sweep! | no alarm on Monday + mic’d up all week!

Welcome to Friday! Let’s sweep this week and get ready for September! But first, for those of you involved with transactions before firing up your Labor Day grill & fun…a reminder:

Labor Day |Monday |September 2nd

Computation of Time | When computing time for the purchase and sale agreements, please regard Monday, September 2nd as a legal holiday. Labor Day is a legal holiday under Washington law.

podcast

Next week, I have a very full line up – a line up that will have me mic’d up and editing all week! I will be recording a 3 part series podcast designed for those of you who’d like to listen in on the following 3 conversations…

(1) Antitrust Lawsuit | David Daniel from Demco and I will rehash what this is all about. Good news, we are not involved. Good news, the NWMLS is not involved. That said, this lawsuit is a driving force behind the October 1st 2019 NWMLS rules changes around SOCs. This will be a good place to start and set the table for the following 2 recordings…

(2) NWMLS Modernization of Selling Office Commission Rules | David Daniel will again join me. There is confusion around what is coming. We’ll work to minimize confusion, your concerns and best practices.

(3) Buyer Agency Agreements | Ballard broker, Greg Lewis will mic up with me and round out this 3rd part of my September podcast series. Greg will share with us his successful use and process with Buyer Agency Agreements. I believe many of you will decide to add this process into your playbook…and win the day by doing it!

I’m so stinking excited about next week, I can hardly stand it. Recording podcasts are one of my very favorite things to do – right up there with blogging on Fridays. These are important topics. My goal is to lead us into a strong finish of 2019 thru education. Here to help, always the ultimate goal.

Alrighty! Get those grills fired up and certainly…do not set an alarm on Monday!

All in, for you.

#OffMute #TheHumanAlgorithm #AllInForYou

Laura Smith | Co-owner | Windermere Real Estate Co.

Laura Smith

 

team